Highlights

Amaechi Has Said It.

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Rigging is a tie that binds the leaders of the PDP and APC together. They have rigged elections in the past and many of them will rig again. Of course, some are more proficient at it than others. Rigging is one of the reasons why the power of incumbency is a massive factor in determining who wins an election. Rig and roast, Tinubu promised and Amaechi has since added civil disobedience and parallel governance to the plan. The President should actually be grateful to Governor Amaechi for letting the cat out of the bag instead of threatening him with treason. He simply took away the element of surprise regarding what the APC is cooking, if PDP out rigs them. When someone tells one what one’s adversary is planning, one should be grateful for such a revelation. Now Jonathan knows that if his people out-rig the APC people, APC will probably not go to court, rather they will deploy civil disobedience and declare a parallel Government. Knowledge is power. That revelation has justified the use of security forces for the 2015 Presidential and Governorship elections. It may now be said at security meetings that a reliable source from the APC has revealed that the party will be fomenting trouble, if they are not satisfied with the conduct of the election. Since only the winner is ever satisfied, it may then be asked if Nigeria will be made ungovernable again?

Who can successfully call for civil disobedience in the APC ? Bola Tinubu can do so in Lagos; he can call out civil society groups, APC rank and file and area boys to paralyze the city but this might not have the thunder of the oil subsidy unrest because the people would be divided. PDP supporters would have none of it and would insist on carrying on with their lives. The unions would be divided.

If General Muhammadu Buhari says so, a tribe of almajiris and talakawas would swoop down on many Northern cities, killing, burning and looting, leaving behind charred bodies, burnt shops, maimed and raped victims and smoke rising from the destruction. The army will enter the street and the blood thirsty will disappear. After Boko Haram, Aso Rock can hardly be terrified by such. APC politicians can not do anything that Boko Haram has not done and the states would eventually need their monthly allocations from Aso Rock

In Port Harcourt, there will be no serious civil disobedience. Those who take to the streets will do so for different reasons, the majority in celebration. Rivers people do not do opposition politics except there is some stomach infrastructure built in. There would only be state-wide civil disobedience if the old Rivers loses the opportunity of having their kinsman Jonathan returned for a second term. Old Rivers is Jonathan country, that’s just the truth. Further East, there would even be a sigh of relief at the loss of a feared Northern presidential candidate. Enugu would be amused at the thought of resenting a Jonathan victory.

A parallel government is just a bluff. Only General Buhari has the cojones for that but at 73 and knowing too well what awaits a soldier who dares that, he would frankly see those making such a suggestion as being out of their mind. Where will the parallel government sit ? Will there also be a parallel armed forces? A parallel police force, judiciary and legislature. Is that not what MKO tried to do? Come on. It is an absurd idea, definitely suicidal.

By raising such possibilities, Amaechi revealed that he is under pressure. Amaechi is a very fortunate person. He has achieved a lot due largely to the mentorship of Dr. Peter Odili and the judgement of the Supreme Court but he is not really a formidable strategist nor is he a tactful man. He is however a man of stupendous courage and wild horses can not tear him away from a cause in which he believes. What his friends would not tell him is that beating a Nigerian President and commander-in-chief of the armed forces in the Nigeria of today is a mission impossible; even when the president was once someone that one could run rings around. All the talk about oil wells, Unep and hating Rivers misses the point. Discretion, absolutely the better part of valor went missing. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that Amaechi might be an endangered specie, if Jonathan wins another term. So, imbued with an oversize courage and a sense of self-preservation, Amaechi has thrown himself completely into the APC mission of ousting Jonathan at the polls. No one is as committed to this project as Rotimi Amaechi. For him it is a battle for survival. If only he could become the party presidential candidate, he would rouse the masses, he would give Jonathan the battle of his life.

Amaechi can not be the APC presidential candidate, for zoning reasons atleast. His battle for survival which is at once APC’s battle for victory at the presidential polls therefore depends on what the presidential candidate can or can not do. It is a very frustrating place to be and for a battle-hardened man who tolerates no constraints to speaking his mind, strange fire tumbles out from the battle inside of him as the pressure of the presidential election builds up. He should no longer be so trigger-happy about taking on the commander-in-chief. It should not take much to guess that if there is anything like a national security watch list, Rotimi Amaechi has now made the list with the civil disobedience and parallel government thingy.

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